Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
